以汽车产业发展为对象的绿色技术预见方法研究
发布人:admin | 发布时间:2009/4/1 | 已被浏览:9887

硕士研究生: 陈晓莉

      指导教师:刘光富  教授

要: 本文主要对绿色技术预见理论进行研究,提出绿色技术预见的概念,完善绿色技术预见德尔菲调查指标体系,并建立预见对象关键技术选择的重要度指数计算模型。
       
本文以绿色技术预见公平的哲学基础和社会构建理论、资源配置理论以及一般系统理论等作为绿色技术预见的理论依据,提出绿色技术预见的概念。基于绿色技术预见需求性、可持续性、可评价性以及可预见性等基本原则,将可持续性列入生活质量指标,并综合专家专业特点、技术课题所处阶段和技术研发水平、技术的预期实现时间、技术重要性、技术可行性和技术实现方式等指标,建立绿色技术预见德尔菲调查指标体系,完善传统指标体系。在传统技术预见计算模型上,加入生活质量指标,综合技术及市场要素,建立绿色技术预见关键技术选择模型,可以优化传统计算模型。
       
以汽车产业发展相关的技术预见案例来验证绿色技术预见指标体系及关键技术选择模型优于传统技术预见,绿色技术预见所得关键技术在生活质量指数上可能高出传统技术预见10%以上。
       
最后,从企业技术创新工程、建立绿色运营识别、重视产品的研发和创新、优化技术引进与消化吸收方式等4个方面,对推进汽车产业绿色化提出相应对策。

 

关键词: 绿色技术预见,可持续发展,德尔菲法,汽车产业

 

Research on the Method of Green Technology Foresight which Oriented towards the Developing of Car Industry

Candidate:  CHEN  Xiaoli
         Supervisor:  Prof. LIU  Guangfu

Abstract: This paper focuses on the research of the theory of Green Technology Foresight , which includes bringing forward the concept of the Green Technology Foresight, building up index system of Delphi investigation, and setting up index quantitative model.
        On the basis of summarizing status of domestic and foreign technology foresight and suitable development thought, this paper clearly puts forward the concept of green technology foresight. In this paper, more systematic and further theory study is done on the following frameworks: It researches into the philosophical basis—equity and illustrates the theoretical basis such as social construction theory, resource allocation theory and general system theory. It also describes the basic principles such as demand, sustainability, evaluation and predictability.
        Then , it puts the suitable development into living quality index and integrates the specialty of experts, the phase in which the technique stands, the R&D level, the time when it expectes to carry out, the importance and feasibility, it also takes the manner how to achieve the technique into account, and buildes up index system of Delphi investigation.
On the base of traditional Technology Foresight model, it takes living quality index into the calculation model. Considering all these things, it sets up the index quantitative model, and optimizes the traditional model.
        On the base of theory explanation, it also takes the item of Technology Foresight which oriented towards the Developing of Car Industry for example to validate the theories above. Form the case, it elicites that the model of Green Technology Foresight is better than the traditional Technology Foresight’s, and the living quality index of Green Technology Foresight is more than ten percents higher than traditional Technology Foresight’s.
        To promote the development of auto industry, strategy research is done on the respects such as the implementation of enterprise technology innovation project and the establishment of green operation identification, the regard of product R&D and innovation, the method of introducing and digesting of technique.

 

Key Words: Green Technology ForesightSustainable DevelopmentDelphicar industry

 

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