基于STS的新能源汽车技术预见研究
发布人:admin | 发布时间:2009/4/8 | 已被浏览:8416

                                                                                                              硕士研究生:黄  鑫
                                                                                                                  指导教师:刘光富  教授

摘 要: 本文研究基于STS的技术预见的理论和方法体系,研究结果将应用于新能源汽车技术的预见。首先,在分析、总结STS理论发展历史和现状的基础上,研究了STS理论与技术预见的内涵和两者的相互关系,提出基于STS的技术预见的操作层面要求,通过对组织者、参与者、预见范围、Delphi调查问卷指标体系、灵活性和系统性等方面的设计与研究,建立基于STS的技术预见方法体系。然后,根据中国新能源汽车的产业特点和具体发展情况,分析了基于STS的新能源汽车技术预见的具体内容和要求,包括技术的环保性和节能性、技术赶超国际水平的能力和注重新能源汽车相关各方合作等,在基于STS的技术预见方法体系的基础上,建立了基于STS的新能源汽车技术预见的方法体系。最后,通过新能源汽车技术预见案例研究与分析,检验和验证基于STS的新能源汽车技术预见的关键技术选择模型在不明显影响关键技术的关键影响力(即对科技发展的重要度和对经济发展的重要度)及其它指标的前提下,明显增加选择出的关键技术在环保性和节能性上的表现,使选出的新能源汽车关键技术更加符合我国新能源汽车产业的发展需求,研究结果对我国进一步开展技术预见活动具有积极的指导意义。

 

关键词: STS;技术预见;新能源汽车;Delphi

 

Research on the Technology Foresight of New Energy Vehicle Based on STS
Candidate:  HUANG  Xin
           Supervisor: Prof.  LIU  Guangfu

Abstract:This paper researches on the theory base and the method system of the technology foresight based on STS and the technology foresight of new energy vehicle industry based on STS, and makes case study based on these method systems in order to verify their affects.
        This paper researches first on theories about technology foresight and STS, and work on the significance of the technology foresight based on STS combining the development history and situation of technology foresight. Then this paper makes further research on the technology foresight based on STS from aspects of STS, technology foresight and its implementing. Based on this, this paper is expected to work out the method system of the technology foresight based on STS. After this, this paper analyses the national situation of new energy vehicle industry in views of STS, tries to work out the method system of the technology foresight of new energy vehicle based on STS based on the method system of the technology foresight based on STS. Using this method system, the paper then makes a case study of a technology foresight of new energy vehicle implementing, in order to find out problems in the case and propose improvements. At last, this paper verify the significance of the technology foresight of new energy vehicle based on STS by comparation and inspecting of these improvements.
        Totally, this paper tries to work out the significance and method system of the technology foresight based on STS and the technology foresight of new energy vehicle industry based on STS. The method system of technology foresight of new energy vehicle based on STS is expected to match the national requirement on development of new energy vehicle more.

 

Key Words: STS, Technology Foresight, New Energy Vehicle; Delphi
 

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