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Research on the Method of Green Technology Foresight which Oriented towards the Developing of Car Industry
Update:Jan 5th, 2010

 

Research on the Method of Green Technology Foresight which Oriented towards the Developing of Car Industry

Candidate:  CHEN  Xiaoli
         Supervisor:  Prof. LIU  Guangfu

Abstract: This paper focuses on the research of the theory of Green Technology Foresight , which includes bringing forward the concept of the Green Technology Foresight, building up index system of Delphi investigation, and setting up index quantitative model.

    On the basis of summarizing status of domestic and foreign technology foresight and suitable development thought, this paper clearly puts forward the concept of green technology foresight. In this paper, more systematic and further theory study is done on the following frameworks: It researches into the philosophical basis—equity and illustrates the theoretical basis such as social construction theory, resource allocation theory and general system theory. It also describes the basic principles such as demand, sustainability, evaluation and predictability.
 

    Then , it puts the suitable development into living quality index and integrates the specialty of experts, the phase in which the technique stands, the R&D level, the time when it expectes to carry out, the importance and feasibility, it also takes the manner how to achieve the technique into account, and buildes up index system of Delphi investigation.

    On the base of traditional Technology Foresight model, it takes living quality index into the calculation model. Considering all these things, it sets up the index quantitative model, and optimizes the traditional model.

    On the base of theory explanation, it also takes the item of Technology Foresight which oriented towards the Developing of Car Industry for example to validate the theories above. Form the case, it elicites that the model of Green Technology Foresight is better than the traditional Technology Foresight’s, and the living quality index of Green Technology Foresight is more than ten percents higher than traditional Technology Foresight’s.

    To promote the development of auto industry, strategy research is done on the respects such as the implementation of enterprise technology innovation project and the establishment of green operation identification, the regard of product R&D and innovation, the method of introducing and digesting of technique. 

Key Words: Green Technology ForesightSustainable DevelopmentDelphicar industry



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